Lesson 2
Technical Analysis


What is Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis involves the forecasting of exchange rate movement based solely upon statistics and price patterns. (In contrast with Fundamental Analysis which looks at economical factors and a country's political conditions)

Here is one of the most important things you will ever learn, and I had to learn it the hard way: ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS PRICE ACTION!

And since Technical Analysis is basically the analysis of the Forex Market based on Price Action, you need to Learn Price Action (But that's a lesson for another day...)

The important thing here is that you know that there is NO technical indicator better than PRICE ACTION (Volatility and Movements of Price)

Technical analysis relies on the statistics and patterns in price movement for its forecast. A combination of price action and technical indicators is the sure way to go, and another important point here is that NO decision should be made on just one indicator alone. ALWAYS combine and confirm two or more technical and/or fundamental indicators....ALWAYS.

 

I Prefer Fundamental Analysis (FA)...
Well you shouldn't...at least not ONLY fundamental. Here is why:

  • TA is easier to understand than FA so it will make your decision making much easier.
  • TA is the SAME for all currencies. FA is not.
  • TA is extremely popular. So just the fact that many people use it, means that expected movements may happen (self-fulfilling prophecy).
  • More TA confirmations means more probabilities of the trading going your way. (As long as you don't saturate your charts with TA).
  • Very complicated indicators are calculated with a press of a button on your Tradestation (Of course you need to know where to place them)

The Most common TA indicators are:

  • Candlestick Patterns
  • Moving Averages (MA)
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI)
  • Stochastics
  • Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • Bollinger Bands (BB)
 

What About Different Time Frames?
Before we enter this topic, please learn this:

YOU WILL NOT GET RICH BY SCALPING THE FOREX MARKET.
I know various rich forex traders....NOT ONE has gotten like that from scalping...Don't know what scalping is? Great, don't bother.

So now that you know that, you are asking yourself which timeframe you should trade. Well that all depends on how many time you have on your hands or in front of the monitor. Well anyway, one chart you CANNOT avoid is the DAILY CHART. At least always look at it for decision taking.

A better way to go is to use daily charts for decision taking, but shorter time frames for entering and exiting in more exact points.

The important thing here is that you know that larger time frames (weekly/monthly) are more exact and follow longer trends, but the entry/exit points are way less precise, and besides you will probably only get one or two opportunities for a trade in the whole month. Finally, the wider stops necessary will probably take you out in a couple of trades (assuming you can afford it).

On the other hand, shorter time frames like 15 mins chart, means your profit targets will be relatively small, and with spreads against you, means your in more probabilities to lose.

THIS IS PACKED WITH SO MUCH INFORMATION, THAT WE DID NOT EVEN GET INTO THE CHARTS! So see you tomorrow. I promise you I'll have those charts I promised you